A month out from the Nov. 3 midterm election, Democrats are expanding their map of targets as poll after poll breaks their way, while Republicans are scrambling to shore up should-be-safe races.
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Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico has been outraising Republican Ken Paxton, and the GOP is now canceling ads in swing states to help shore up their candidate in a race they can’t afford to lose.
“This is a must-hold for Republicans if you’re looking at any chance that they maintain control of the Senate, so they have to spend here,” said San Antonio Republican strategist Kelton Morgan.
The GOP has a three-seat majority in the 100-member U.S. Senate, which has been growing tougher to protect as some races in red states now appear in potential danger.
They hoped to put Texas away earlier this year by spending millions promoting U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the primary, but he lost by 28 points to a candidate they’re now having to rescue.
“But if it was Cornyn, they wouldn’t have to dump a quarter of a billion dollars into Texas to drag him across the line,” Morgan said. “They could still be competitive in North Carolina or somewhere else.”
Meanwhile, San Antonio-area congressional seats that Republicans redrew to help them hold the U.S. House have become a lower priority for GOP leaders who are trying to defend incumbents elsewhere.
Their candidates are still getting money from outside groups, including PACs aligned with President Donald Trump, but recent polling is forcing the party to focus on holding seats instead of gaining them, Morgan said.
“This new map was drawn specifically to give Republicans a bunch of free seats,” Morgan said. “Now the priority is not to compete for those seats — the priority is to go shore up the people everywhere else that are getting their ass kicked that should be safe.”
Democrats find themselves in the opposite position, pouring money and resources into districts that on paper wouldn’t appear flippable.
The main super PAC supporting House Democrats reserved ads in to two uphill San Antonio-area races, and in the latest sign of their optimism, national Democrats sent staff to help TX23 hopeful Katy Padilla Stout, who swapped out her top aides in the final stretch of an uphill race to replace disgraced Republican Tony Gonzales.
A local operative who was laid off said it’s encouraging for Democrats — but a bummer to those who helped get her this far.
“It is my understanding that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee saw an opportunity to win this race and was willing to become more involved if changes were made to the campaign operation,” former staffer Robert Vargas III said in a statement.
Campaign finance reports covering money raised and spent from July 1 to Sept. 24 were due Monday for state and local candidates, and federal candidates’ reports, due Oct. 15, are also starting to trickle in.
So far, state reports have shown Democratic challengers raising big money — with a few notable exceptions.
Northside state Rep. Marc LaHood (R-San Antonio) continues to ride the goodwill of trial lawyers to outraise his opponent Zack Dunn, and national money has been slow to arrive for Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, Gina Hinojosa, though some local Democrats are gearing up to help her on the ground in Bexar County.
Here are thebiggest takeaways from the latest campaign finance reports.
Statewide races
National Republicans are increasingly worried about who will foot the bill for an expensive U.S. Senate race in Texas.
They hoped deep-pocketed groups aligned with President Donald Trump would bail out Paxton after the president endorsed him in the final days before the primary runoff.
Now, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate GOP leaders, is being forced to purchase tens of millions of dollars worth of ads here, as Paxton’s campaign remains underfunded.
The Republican reported raising $18 million in the past three months, his best quarter yet. But he’s been trailing in both polls and fundraising to Democrat James Talarico, whose most recent haul hasn’t posted.
Talarico stockpiled cash during the GOP primary runoff, and is also getting help from a PAC aligned with Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York), called Texas Forever.
The Texas governor’s race is a different story.
As recent polls show a close race, and Latino lawmakers wrote to the Democratic Governors Association seeking resources for Texas, but so far little has materialized.
“The most telling thing for me on Hinojosa is that national Democratic money isn’t coming,” Morgan said. “I know they sent some staff and paid for some canvassing … but in a state where it costs $20 million a week to run worthwhile television, canvassers knocking on 150,000 doors doesn’t get you all that far.”
As of Wednesday morning, money was just beginning to flow from the Democratic Governors Association.
Still, Gov. Greg Abbott is running through an incredible war chest for a race few thought would be competitive. He brought in another $20 million in the past three months, but — down from more than $100 million at the beginning of the cycle.
Hinojosa in that same span.
Top congressional races
Some of the top congressional races in the country are unfolding in the San Antonio area, but federal candidates don’t have to report their fundraising for the third quarter of 2026 until Oct. 15.
We’ll update the candidate spending when it posts, though outside group spending is perhaps a more significant indicator of where things stand this late in the cycle.
The battle for the U.S. House runs through South Texas. Here’s a cheat sheet to the top 5 races.
Broadly speaking, House Republicans are spending to protect U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg), while leaving Trump-aligned PACs and other groups to handle the rest of the South Texas races.
That’s as Democrats face pressure to compete for long-shot races that appear to be coming online.
“[Republicans are] not spending money on expanding the map, we’re spending money protecting what we have,” Morgan said. “For Democrats, it’s a problem of abundance. The map keeps getting bigger for them just based on how polling is moving, both nationally and in individual districts.”
Texas’ 35th Congressional District: The 35th Congressional District was reshaped to give Republicans an extra pickup opportunity, but has morphed into a congressional battleground.
Trump swooped into the GOP primary to boost a little-known candidate over a popular state lawmaker, and now the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC has reserved $4 million worth of ads in the district to help Republican nominee Carlos De La Cruz over the line.
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That PAC recently took down and then put back up an attack ad that used AI to depict the Democrat in the race, Johnny Garcia, shaking his head in frustration — intended to show he’s not tough enough for Congress. Garcia is first-time candidate who outraised De La Cruz in the second quarter.
Neither candidates’ Q3 reports had posted as of Wednesday morning.
Garcia is getting help from Congressional Democrats’ main PAC, which reserved more than $1 million in ads for him earlier this year.
Texas’ 23rd Congressional District: A second San Antonio-area race, in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, is suddenly getting more attention from Democrats in the final stretch.
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Earlier this year a scandalous affair forced Republican Tony Gonzales to drop his reelection bid and resign before the end of his term, which automatically made his runoff opponent, 30-year-old gun content creator Brandon Herrera, the GOP nominee.
The district supported President Donald Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024, but national Democrats now think they could have a shot, in part because Herrera is such a polarizing candidate.
House Democrats’ largest super PAC has already reserved ads here, and in the final weeks of the race Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout brought in a whole new staff of national campaign operatives.
House GOP leaders have embraced Herrera — despite spending against him in the past — but so far the outside ads are coming from other groups, including a PAC aligned with the House Freedom Caucus and Trump-aligned Never Going Back PAC.
Herrera recently filed an indicating he has plenty of personal resources to put into the race, and his campaign says he raised more than $600,000 in the third quarter between his campaign and various PACs.
His past self-funding efforts drew a complaint from an ethics watchdog group that accused him of funneling money to a shell entity.
Padilla Stout outraised Herrera earlier this year, but her latest report hasn’t posted.
Two targeted Texas House races
Democrats are also banking on a good year to help them gain some power in the conservative-dominated Texas House this year.
Most believe the state is too gerrymandered to flip it in a single cycle, but the GOP’s mid-cycle redistricting effort has national Democratic leaders worried about making progress before the next round of redistricting shuts them out entirely.
Some Republicans have already signaled interest in coming back for another round of redistricting next session to further put districts out of Democrats’ reach, after the Supreme Court weakened parts of the Voting Rights Act.
Texas House District 118: Perhaps the single most ripe pickup opportunity is Texas House District 118 on San Antonio’s South Side, where moderate Republican John Lujan (R-San Antonio) flipped a district Democrat Joe Biden carried but ran for Congress instead of reelection this year.
Democrat Kristian Carranza broke fundraising records last cycle running against Lujan, and raised $444,000 in the past three months, spent $157,000 and
Her opponent, Republican Jorge Borrego, worked in education policy before this race, helping craft Texas’ school voucher program and serving as a legislative director for a South Texas Republican.
He raised $238,000 in the past three months, spent $30,000 and .
Borrego got help from deep-pocketed business leaders in the GOP primary, because they feared his opponent could join a growing group of Republican trial lawyers stopping their lawsuit reform goals in the legislature.
In the general election, the vast majority of Borrego’s money is coming from a PAC aligned with House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock), called the Texas Conservative Majority PAC.
Carranza is a longtime political strategist who has deep relationships with Democratic Party leaders. So far, her biggest donor from the 2024 cycle remains on the sidelines this year: A national PAC aligned with gun safety activist David Hogg, which gave her $1.2 million.
Texas House District 121: Democrats consider Texas House District 121 on the Northside another one of their top prospects, but unusual dynamics have kept their candidate Zack Dunn from raising as much money as other candidates.
Incumbent Republican state Rep. Marc LaHood (R-San Antonio) is a criminal defense attorney who aligns with the GOP’s conservative wing, but crossed the aisle to help trial lawyers stop big lawsuit reforms last session.
That’s helped LaHood raise about what triple what Dunn brought in over the past three months:
- , spent about $580,000 and reported about $340,000 on hand.
- Dunn raised close to $200,000 in that same span, spent $76,000 and reported about .
“Most of the money for the Democrats is coming out of the trial lawyers … and there’s a good chance that they won’t spend [against LaHood],” said GOP strategist Craig Murphy, who worked for LaHood’s opponent in the primary. “If they don’t spend money, they can’t beat him.”
No Democrat has won the district since 1981, according to Dunn, but it’s still among the party’s best targets in a state where most districts are drawn overwhelmingly in favor of a single party.
He’s a longtime prosecutor who worked for an array of local Democrats earlier in his career, and most of his money came from state and national Democratic groups who see potential in a wave election.
The DLCC, a national Democratic group focused on flipping state legislatures is spending in Texas this year, put him on their list of top 10 candidates nationwide.
Bexar County races
Bexar County is electing two new top leaders, after Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai lost his primary and District Attorney Joe Gonzales announced plans to retire.
In a blue county, both seats saw tons of money spent in tough Democratic primaries.
Now as Democrats grow excited about their statewide prospects, Democrats’ nominee for Bexar County Judge, former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, is trying to boost local turnout to help his party’s candidates for governor, U.S. Senate and other races.
“For three decades, we have been waiting for the opportunity that is before us right now, to finally break the chokehold that one-party rule has had on our great state of Texas,” Nirenberg said at a rally for Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa last month.
in the past three months, spent $152,000 and reported $480,000 on hand.
Republican Patrick Von Dohlen, a conservative activist, didn’t have a report available as of Wednesday morning.
Nirenberg also opened a campaign office off Broadway using donated space where he and other Democratic candidates can hold meetings and make calls — something his peers elsewhere in the state are also doing.
“How opportunities slip away is to be complacent,” Nirenberg said. “It isn’t enough for Gina [Hinojosa] to win Bexar County to beat Greg Abbott — she needs us in Bexar County to show up like we have never shown up before.”
In District Attorney race, Democrat Luz Elena Chapa raised $160,000 and . Republican Ashley Foster , and independent Jason Wolff reported about $6,000 spent after a legal fight to stay on the ballot.
Most of Foster’s money was in-kind legal help for her fight with Wolff.
Business chips in for Pre-K campaign
San Antonio’s biggest employers are chipping in big money to bring San Antonio voters on board with a major extension of the city’s free Pre-K program.
The campaign to pass Pre-K 4 SA’s 20-year reauthorization kicked off at Club Giraud last month, with hosts from HEB and USAA. The top sponsorship level was $100,000.
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The effort’s posted this week, indicating its leaders has raised $372,000 in the month after City Council put the measure on the ballot. Frost Bank, Holt Cat and USAA were the biggest contributors.
The measure will appear as Proposition A on San Antonio residents’ Nov. 3 ballots.
City Council bumped up the reauthorization by two years, hoping to take advantage of high voter turnout in the midterm election to lock down support for one of progressives’ biggest policy achievements.
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